I think you’re both right, Mike’s glass half empty, you’re glass half full.
It’s a period of transition, something new will be born of it, but I think Mike’s right about the political structure. It’s done. He is not the only one predicting an American break up, this new book American War, has the civil war breaking out again. Given our crazy cultural wars and the complete disgust country wide with the federal system (has Congress done anything remarkable in the past 15 years? Uh no.) it seems entirely feasible.