This all sounds very intimidating (to someone who never passed a Calculus test), but it seems that you have appropriately taken into account the electoral college — which really elects the President — not the popular vote. And If I understand the electoral college correctly — its possible for a candidate to get a large number of electoral college votes, above and beyond what’s necessary to win, and that’s how winners get called early, correct? And by early, I mean far before the popular vote is all in. On the West Coast polls may not even close, before they announce a winner; and so predicting how the electoral college votes is really they key to predicting the election outcome, right? I think this is important to note, since votes cast by the electoral college operate differently than the popular vote.